Preseason Rankings
North Carolina
Atlantic Coast
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+17.9#6
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace74.9#53
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+11.7#4
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.1#21
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 8.6% 9.6% 3.8%
#1 Seed 29.8% 32.6% 15.3%
Top 2 Seed 50.1% 75.0% 52.2%
Top 4 Seed 71.2% 75.0% 52.2%
Top 6 Seed 82.3% 75.0% 52.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 93.2% 95.0% 84.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 92.0% 94.0% 82.7%
Average Seed 3.2 3.0 4.2
.500 or above 95.8% 97.3% 88.5%
.500 or above in Conference 90.9% 92.2% 84.2%
Conference Champion 26.0% 27.9% 16.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four0.6% 0.5% 1.3%
First Round93.1% 94.8% 84.2%
Second Round80.5% 83.0% 68.0%
Sweet Sixteen55.5% 58.2% 41.9%
Elite Eight35.1% 37.6% 22.6%
Final Four20.3% 21.9% 12.4%
Championship Game11.8% 12.8% 6.6%
National Champion6.3% 7.0% 3.0%

Next Game: Wofford (Away) - 83.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4.2 - 4.44.2 - 4.4
Quad 1b3.6 - 1.57.7 - 5.9
Quad 26.0 - 1.313.7 - 7.3
Quad 35.5 - 0.519.2 - 7.7
Quad 44.0 - 0.123.2 - 7.8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 97   @ Wofford W 84-71 83%    
  Nov 09, 2018 231   @ Elon W 88-66 96%    
  Nov 12, 2018 108   Stanford W 86-72 94%    
  Nov 16, 2018 287   Tennessee Tech W 90-65 99%    
  Nov 19, 2018 160   St. Francis (PA) W 89-71 97%    
  Nov 22, 2018 26   Texas W 77-71 69%    
  Nov 23, 2018 50   UCLA W 87-79 76%    
  Nov 28, 2018 19   @ Michigan W 75-71 55%    
  Dec 05, 2018 197   UNC Wilmington W 94-74 98%    
  Dec 15, 2018 5   Gonzaga L 80-81 59%    
  Dec 22, 2018 3   Kentucky L 80-81 48%    
  Dec 29, 2018 88   Davidson W 81-69 91%    
  Jan 02, 2019 77   Harvard W 79-68 89%    
  Jan 05, 2019 167   @ Pittsburgh W 82-64 90%    
  Jan 08, 2019 38   @ North Carolina St. W 88-81 64%    
  Jan 12, 2019 54   Louisville W 84-75 84%    
  Jan 15, 2019 49   Notre Dame W 79-71 83%    
  Jan 19, 2019 23   @ Miami (FL) W 80-75 57%    
  Jan 21, 2019 20   Virginia Tech W 84-79 73%    
  Jan 29, 2019 113   @ Georgia Tech W 79-65 83%    
  Feb 02, 2019 54   @ Louisville W 84-75 69%    
  Feb 05, 2019 38   North Carolina St. W 88-81 81%    
  Feb 09, 2019 23   Miami (FL) W 80-75 75%    
  Feb 11, 2019 2   Virginia L 65-66 57%    
  Feb 16, 2019 115   @ Wake Forest W 87-73 83%    
  Feb 20, 2019 4   @ Duke L 82-83 39%    
  Feb 23, 2019 15   Florida St. W 86-82 71%    
  Feb 26, 2019 12   Syracuse W 73-70 69%    
  Mar 02, 2019 18   @ Clemson W 77-73 55%    
  Mar 05, 2019 78   @ Boston College W 86-75 75%    
  Mar 09, 2019 4   Duke L 82-83 59%    
Projected Record 23.2 - 7.8 12.7 - 5.3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.2 6.5 8.6 5.4 1.6 26.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.0 7.0 4.8 1.4 0.1 17.7 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.0 6.0 3.1 0.6 0.0 13.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.8 2.8 0.4 0.0 10.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 4.0 2.6 0.4 8.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.8 2.8 0.3 0.0 6.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.6 0.7 0.0 5.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 2.1 0.9 0.0 3.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.9 0.1 3.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.1 1.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.7 3.6 5.3 7.7 10.0 11.4 13.8 13.7 11.9 10.1 5.4 1.6 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.6    1.6
17-1 98.6% 5.4    4.9 0.5
16-2 85.7% 8.6    6.2 2.3 0.1
15-3 54.7% 6.5    3.3 2.7 0.6 0.0 0.0
14-4 23.4% 3.2    0.8 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 4.5% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 26.0% 26.0 16.9 7.1 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.6% 100.0% 38.3% 61.7% 1.1 1.5 0.1 100.0%
17-1 5.4% 100.0% 34.0% 66.0% 1.1 4.8 0.6 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 10.1% 100.0% 26.1% 73.9% 1.2 7.7 2.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 11.9% 100.0% 24.1% 75.9% 1.5 7.2 3.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 13.7% 100.0% 20.5% 79.5% 1.9 5.4 5.4 2.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 13.8% 100.0% 13.7% 86.3% 2.7 2.3 4.8 3.6 1.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 11.4% 99.9% 10.2% 89.7% 3.5 0.7 2.4 3.2 2.8 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-7 10.0% 99.1% 8.7% 90.4% 4.7 0.1 0.8 1.7 2.4 2.1 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.0%
10-8 7.7% 96.9% 5.3% 91.6% 6.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.6 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 96.8%
9-9 5.3% 87.3% 5.8% 81.5% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 86.5%
8-10 3.6% 60.7% 5.0% 55.7% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 58.6%
7-11 2.7% 33.6% 3.3% 30.3% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 31.3%
6-12 1.4% 15.4% 2.1% 13.3% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 13.6%
5-13 0.8% 4.1% 2.2% 1.9% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.0%
4-14 0.4% 7.6% 7.6% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 93.2% 15.8% 77.5% 3.2 29.8 20.3 12.0 9.2 6.4 4.6 3.8 3.0 2.1 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.8 92.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 1.1 92.3 7.7